China export control minerals now sit at the centre of western industrial policy. China accounts for more than 60% of global rare earth mining output and over 85% of processing capacity, according to the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — and it has demonstrated, repeatedly, that it is willing to use that position as a policy instrument. Export restrictions on gallium and germanium were enacted in August 2023. Controls on rare earth processing technology followed in December 2023. A second wave targeting seven additional minerals — including indium, bismuth, and molybdenum — was announced in February 2025. The list below ranks the minerals where supply concentration, active control status, and strategic exposure combine to create the most acute risk for western defence, energy, and semiconductor industries. Broader coverage of the critical minerals landscape, including lithium, cobalt, and graphite, is tracked at Critical Minerals News.
How We Ranked These Minerals
Each mineral is assessed across three criteria: China’s share of global refined or mined supply; whether export controls have been enacted, announced, or formally threatened; and the degree of western dependency in defence, clean energy, and semiconductor supply chains. Minerals where all three factors converge score highest. Rankings reflect conditions as of Q1 2026 and are subject to revision as China’s export control framework continues to expand.
1. Gallium
Gallium ranks first. China produces approximately 80% of global primary gallium, derived as a by-product of aluminium refining. Export controls were formally enacted in August 2023, requiring licences for all exports. Gallium is a foundational input for gallium nitride (GaN) semiconductors used in 5G infrastructure, radar systems, and electric vehicle power electronics. Western stockpiles are limited; substitution is not commercially viable at scale. According to SMM data, the FOB China price reached $400/kg in early 2026 — more than double pre-restriction levels. See the full gallium price tracker for current benchmark data.
2. Germanium
Germanium is China’s highest-value export control target by unit price. China controls roughly 60% of global germanium output, with the remainder split between Russia, Canada, and the United States. Controls enacted alongside gallium in August 2023 require export licences for germanium metal and germanium dioxide. End-use applications include fibre-optic cables, infrared optics for military systems, and solar cells. SMM benchmarks the USA warehouse price at $5,475/kg in early 2026 — a sustained premium over the Chinese domestic price of $1,949/kg. Full data on the germanium price page.
3. Dysprosium
Dysprosium is the rare earth element with the most acute western supply vulnerability. China accounts for approximately 99% of global dysprosium output, concentrated in ionic clay deposits in Jiangxi and Fujian provinces. No export ban is currently in place, but dysprosium is subject to China’s rare earth production quota system — which functions as a de facto supply throttle. Dysprosium is essential for high-temperature performance of NdFeB permanent magnets used in EV traction motors and wind turbine generators. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) is the only significant non-Chinese producer; the Lynas company profile covers its Malaysian separation capacity in detail. The SMM FOB China price sits at $317/kg as of early 2026. See the dysprosium price tracker.
4. Terbium
Terbium shares dysprosium’s supply geography — both are heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) extracted almost exclusively from Chinese ionic clay deposits. China’s share of global terbium supply exceeds 90%. No direct export controls apply, but quota-constrained production makes terbium highly susceptible to policy-driven supply shocks. Terbium oxide is used to enhance the coercivity of NdFeB magnets at high operating temperatures, with no commercially viable substitute. SMM benchmarks the FOB China price at $1,182/kg. Current benchmark data is on the terbium price page.
5. Neodymium
Neodymium is the highest-volume rare earth subject to China’s quota system and the primary driver of NdFeB magnet production economics. China accounts for around 85% of global neodymium output. While no direct export ban applies, China’s December 2023 restrictions on rare earth processing and separation technology directly constrain western attempts to build alternative refining capacity. The EV and wind turbine sectors are the dominant consumers: Adamas Intelligence estimates NdFeB magnet demand will grow at a CAGR of approximately 8% through 2030. MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is the leading western producer; its Mountain Pass operation is profiled at the MP Materials company page. SMM benchmarks the neodymium FOB China price at $184/kg. See the neodymium price tracker for current data.
6. Praseodymium
Praseodymium is co-produced with neodymium and traded as the NdPr oxide blend in most commercial transactions. China controls approximately 85% of global output. Its inclusion in the rare earth processing technology restrictions enacted in December 2023 compounds western supply chain risk. Praseodymium demand is growing alongside neodymium as magnet alloy production expands in Japan, South Korea, and — to a lesser extent — Europe. SMM prices the FOB China praseodymium oxide at $142/kg as of early 2026. The praseodymium price page tracks current and historical benchmarks.
7. Indium
Indium was added to China’s expanded export control list in February 2025. China accounts for approximately 57% of global indium refining capacity, with South Korea and Japan as secondary producers. Indium tin oxide (ITO) — the transparent conductor used in touchscreens, flat-panel displays, and thin-film solar cells — is the dominant end-use. Defence applications include infrared detector arrays. The FOB China indium price sits at approximately $607/kg per SMM benchmarks. See the indium price tracker for current data and market context.
8. Bismuth
Bismuth was included in China’s February 2025 export control announcement alongside indium. China accounts for over 70% of global bismuth mine production, per USGS MCS 2025. Primary applications include lead-free solders in electronics manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and — critically — bismuth-telluride thermoelectric devices used in heat management for defence electronics. Western secondary production from lead refining is insufficient to offset a sustained Chinese restriction. No dedicated western bismuth refining project is at an advanced stage as of Q1 2026.
9. Molybdenum
Molybdenum presents a different risk profile from the rare earths and semiconductor metals above. China accounts for approximately 45% of global molybdenum mine output — significant but not dominant. It was nonetheless included in the February 2025 control package, signalling Beijing’s willingness to extend restrictions beyond its most concentrated supply positions. Molybdenum is a critical alloying agent in high-strength steel used in aerospace, defence, and energy infrastructure. Primary western producers include Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) and Codelco. The risk here is disruption to pricing and logistics rather than outright supply denial.
10. Antimony
Antimony rounds out the list. China controls approximately 48% of global antimony mine production and a higher share of refined output, per USGS MCS 2025. Export controls were announced in August 2024, covering antimony ore, concentrates, metal, and oxide. Antimony trioxide is a flame retardant used in circuit boards, cable insulation, and military-grade composites. Antimony is also a component of lead-acid batteries and certain ammunition types. The US Department of Defense has identified antimony as a priority acquisition target. Australia’s Mandalay Resources and Canada’s Perpetua Resources are among the western projects at development stage.
Critical Minerals Export Control Risk: Summary Table
| Mineral | China Supply Share | Export Control Status | Key Industries at Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallium | ~80% | ✅ Enacted (Aug 2023) | 5G, radar, EV power electronics |
| Germanium | ~60% | ✅ Enacted (Aug 2023) | Fibre optics, infrared optics, solar |
| Dysprosium | ~99% | ⚠️ Quota system (de facto) | EV motors, wind turbines, defence |
| Terbium | >90% | ⚠️ Quota system (de facto) | NdFeB magnets, defence systems |
| Neodymium | ~85% | ⚠️ Processing tech ban (Dec 2023) | EV, wind, robotics, defence |
| Praseodymium | ~85% | ⚠️ Processing tech ban (Dec 2023) | NdFeB magnets, clean energy |
| Indium | ~57% | ✅ Enacted (Feb 2025) | Displays, solar, defence IR |
| Bismuth | >70% | ✅ Enacted (Feb 2025) | Electronics, defence thermal mgmt |
| Molybdenum | ~45% | ✅ Enacted (Feb 2025) | Aerospace, defence, energy steel |
| Antimony | ~48% | ✅ Enacted (Aug 2024) | Flame retardants, batteries, ammo |
Outlook: What Changes This Ranking in 2026 and 2027
The ranking will shift as two forces play out simultaneously. On the supply side, western governments are accelerating investment in processing capacity — the US Defense Production Act, EU Critical Raw Materials Act, and Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy are all directing capital toward the minerals highest on this list. Projects profiled in the top 10 rare earth mining projects give a sense of which assets are closest to production. On the demand side, the rate of EV adoption, wind turbine installation, and defence procurement will determine how quickly western industries exhaust existing stockpiles and alternative supply agreements. The minerals most likely to move up this ranking — either through new Chinese controls or accelerating western demand — are cobalt, tungsten, and graphite, none of which China has yet formally restricted but all of which sit within its dominant supply position. The full geopolitical context is covered in depth at China’s rare earth export controls: the 2026 update.
Which critical mineral is most at risk from China export controls?
Gallium currently carries the highest combined risk — China produces around 80% of global supply and enacted formal export controls in August 2023. GaN semiconductors used in 5G, radar, and EV power electronics have no short-term substitutes, and western stockpiles remain limited. Germanium runs a close second under the same August 2023 control regime.
What critical minerals has China already restricted exports of?
As of Q1 2026, China has enacted formal export licence requirements for gallium and germanium (August 2023), rare earth processing and separation technology (December 2023), and a second tranche covering indium, bismuth, and molybdenum (February 2025). Antimony export controls were announced in August 2024. Rare earth elements including dysprosium, terbium, neodymium, and praseodymium remain subject to China’s production quota system, which functions as a de facto supply control.
How do China export controls affect rare earth prices?
Controls create a price wedge between Chinese domestic prices and western warehouse or CIF prices. Germanium is the clearest example: the SMM domestic China price sits at approximately $1,949/kg while the USA warehouse equivalent is around $5,475/kg — a spread driven by export licence costs, logistics friction, and strategic stockpiling by western buyers. Quota-constrained rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium show similar structural premiums in western markets.
Which western countries are most exposed to China mineral export controls?
The United States, Japan, South Korea, and Germany carry the highest industrial exposure. The US is the largest consumer of gallium-based semiconductors and NdFeB magnets for defence applications. Japan and South Korea dominate global NdFeB magnet manufacturing outside China and import the vast majority of their rare earth feedstock from Chinese sources. Germany’s automotive and industrial machinery sectors are heavily dependent on permanent magnet supply chains that run through China.
What is the US doing to reduce dependence on Chinese critical minerals?
The US is pursuing a multi-track strategy: domestic production incentives through the Defense Production Act and Inflation Reduction Act; offtake agreements between the Department of Defense and producers including MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earth; and allied supply chain development through the Minerals Security Partnership. Progress is real but slow — meaningful western processing capacity for most minerals on this list remains 3–7 years from commercial scale.
