- The rare earth market outlook October 2026 is mixed and quiet: across the 19 tracked SMM benchmarks the average move was -0.24% and the median +0.15%, with 11 rising and 8 falling.
- The NdPr alloy benchmark rose 1.85% to $133.44/kg while neodymium metal (-0.64%) and praseodymium metal (-1.08%) eased, breaking the lockstep seen in early September.
- Germanium rose 4.96% in China to $3,585.51/kg while Western warehouse prices held, narrowing the Western premium to 78.6%; indium eased 1.54% in China against unchanged Western benchmarks at $880.00/kg.
- Cerium (-3.25%) and gallium (-2.38%) led the declines, while eight benchmarks, including scandium, yttrium and lutetium, moved by 0.2% or less.
- China’s suspension of its October 2025 export controls expires on 10 November 2026, and the suspended US-specific gallium and germanium ban lapses on 27 November 2026.
The rare earth market outlook October 2026 shows a quieter month than September across the tracked basket, with an average change of -0.24% and a median of +0.15% on Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) benchmarks assessed on 30 September 2026 (China) and 4 October 2026 (Western warehouse rows). Eleven of the 19 tracked elements rose and eight fell, but the spread was wide: germanium gained 4.96% in China, while cerium lost 3.25%. The more important change is structural. The NdPr complex that fell as a block in early September has split, with the alloy up and both pure metals down, while germanium and indium continued to show different domestic-Western relationships for a fourth consecutive month.
Rare Earth Market Outlook October 2026: Monthly Price Summary
| Element | September 2026 ($/kg) | October 2026 ($/kg) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germanium 99.999% (domestic) | $3,416.06 | $3,585.51 | â–² +4.96% |
| Erbium Oxide | $86.72 | $88.49 | â–² +2.04% |
| NdPr Alloy (domestic) | $131.02 | $133.44 | â–² +1.85% |
| Europium Oxide | $25.24 | $25.28 | â–² +0.16% |
| Ytterbium Oxide | $13.14 | $13.16 | â–² +0.15% |
| Scandium Metal | $3,087.59 | $3,092.09 | â–² +0.15% |
| Gadolinium Metal | $55.18 | $55.26 | â–² +0.15% |
| Samarium Metal | $9.85 | $9.87 | â–² +0.15% |
| Lanthanum Metal | $3.19 | $3.20 | â–² +0.15% |
| Lutetium Oxide | $666.79 | $667.76 | â–² +0.15% |
| Yttrium Metal | $34.82 | $34.87 | â–² +0.14% |
| Neodymium Metal (domestic) | $141.79 | $140.88 | â–¼ -0.64% |
| Praseodymium Metal (domestic) | $150.69 | $149.06 | â–¼ -1.08% |
| Holmium Oxide | $85.07 | $83.88 | â–¼ -1.40% |
| Indium 99.995% (domestic) | $792.81 | $780.59 | â–¼ -1.54% |
| Terbium Metal (domestic) | $1,097.08 | $1,074.34 | â–¼ -2.07% |
| Dysprosium Metal (domestic) | $239.12 | $233.55 | â–¼ -2.33% |
| Gallium 99.99% (domestic) | $234.53 | $228.95 | â–¼ -2.38% |
| Cerium Metal | $3.88 | $3.75 | â–¼ -3.25% |
Source: SMM, September column assessed 3 September 2026 and October column assessed 30 September 2026 (Western warehouse and FOB rows 4 October 2026). All domestic China prices are VAT-excluded. Thulium is excluded because SMM does not publish a thulium contract; see the thulium price page for indicative reference data, most recently confirmed in a quarterly review.
NdPr Complex Diverges After September’s Pullback
Neodymium metal eased 0.64% to $140.88/kg and praseodymium metal fell 1.08% to $149.06/kg, while the NdPr alloy benchmark recovered 1.85% to $133.44/kg. All three had fallen together in early September, so the latest readings break the lockstep. FOB China prices held, with neodymium at $154/kg and praseodymium at $162/kg, which widened the FOB premium over domestic to about 9.3% for neodymium and 8.7% for praseodymium as the domestic metals eased.
The alloy is the benchmark magnet makers procure against, so its recovery matters more for downstream costs than the softer pure metals. Whether the divergence marks a pause within the broader supply-deficit story or the start of a correction in the pure metals is not yet clear. For benchmark detail, see the neodymium price tracker.
The praseodymium series shows the same split, with the metal at $149.06/kg against the alloy at $133.44/kg. For the full praseodymium view, see the praseodymium price tracker.
Germanium and Indium: Domestic-Western Splits, Fourth Month Running
Germanium’s China domestic benchmark rose a further 4.96% to $3,585.51/kg (99.999% grade), while Western in-warehouse prices barely moved, with the USA benchmark at $6,405/kg and Europe at $6,355/kg, each up 0.16%. The Western premium over the domestic price narrowed to 78.6% from 87.2% in early September and 104.6% in August. The Western warehouse tier has held within a narrow $6,150 to $6,405/kg band since June, while the domestic benchmark has done almost all of the moving. For benchmark detail, see the germanium price tracker.
Indium showed the opposite pattern in the domestic market: China fell 1.54% to $780.59/kg while the CIF, USA and Europe benchmarks stayed at an identical $880.00/kg, widening the Western premium to about 12.7% from about 11%. September’s cross-market structure has held after three months of different readings. China placed indium under export licensing on 4 February 2025, alongside tungsten, tellurium, bismuth and molybdenum, whereas gallium and germanium were licensed earlier, in August 2023. For benchmark detail, see the indium price tracker.
Heavy Rare Earth Oxides and Metals: Holmium and Erbium Diverge
The oxide-benchmarked heavy rare earths did not move as a block. Holmium oxide fell 1.40% to $83.88/kg, while erbium oxide rose 2.04% to $88.49/kg, after both had gained more than 6% in early September. Ytterbium (+0.15% to $13.16/kg), europium (+0.16% to $25.28/kg) and lutetium (+0.15% to $667.76/kg) were essentially flat. For holmium detail, see the holmium price tracker.
Erbium’s gain keeps it at the top of the oxide group this month. For erbium detail, see the erbium price tracker.
Dysprosium and terbium fell together, with dysprosium down 2.33% to $233.55/kg and terbium down 2.07% to $1,074.34/kg, after diverging in early September. The terbium-to-dysprosium price ratio is essentially unchanged at about 4.6 times. Both elements are among the seven covered by China’s April 2025 licensing requirement, which remains in force. For dysprosium detail, see the dysprosium price tracker.
Terbium’s FOB China price eased 1.61% to $1,532/kg, leaving the domestic-to-FOB spread at about 42.6%. For terbium detail, see the terbium price tracker.
Cerium and Gallium Lead the Declines
Cerium fell 3.25% to $3.75/kg, its third consecutive decline after August’s 13.8% fall and early September’s 5.86% fall, though the pace is slowing. No demand catalyst is visible that would absorb the structural surplus from Chinese and expanding Western light rare earth production. For cerium detail, see the cerium price tracker.
Gallium eased 2.38% to $228.95/kg in China, while the FOB export price held at $433/kg after breaking its four-month $400/kg plateau at the last update, widening the domestic-to-FOB spread to about $204/kg. For gallium detail, see the gallium price tracker.
Scandium stabilised after two months of declines, edging up 0.15% to $3,092.09/kg, with the oxide, high-purity metal and aluminium-scandium master alloy all moving by 0.15% or less. For scandium detail, see the scandium price tracker.
Western Supply Chain: Policy and Project Developments
The policy backdrop is defined by a standoff that has not yet been resolved. China’s April 2025 licensing requirement covering samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium remains in force. The wider October 2025 measures are suspended until 10 November 2026, and the US-specific ban on gallium and germanium exports (Announcement No. 46 of 2024) is suspended until 27 November 2026. See the China rare earth export controls guide for the detail.
The effect on trade flows was visible in the first half of the year. SMM’s H1 2026 export review found that light rare earths traded efficiently, with export approvals averaging about 30 days, while heavy rare earths faced strict licensing, a 30 to 40% price premium over domestic Chinese levels, and dysprosium and terbium export volumes down about 60% year on year.
On the project side, USA Rare Earth announced on 20 April 2026 a definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema mine and processing plant in Goias, Brazil, for about $2.8 billion, with closing expected in the third quarter of 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. Serra Verde has a $565 million financing package from the US International Development Finance Corporation and targets phase one capacity of about 6,400 tonnes a year of total rare earth oxides by the end of 2027, with a product mix that includes dysprosium, terbium and yttrium. Completion had not been confirmed in the sources reviewed as of 4 October 2026. See the USA Rare Earth Serra Verde acquisition analysis for more.
Rare Earth Market Outlook October 2026: What to Watch in November
The central date is 10 November 2026, when the suspension of China’s October 2025 export controls is due to expire. Three outcomes are in play: an extension of the suspension, selective reinstatement targeting specific elements or end uses, or full reimposition of the October 2025 measures. The April 2025 requirement stays in place under any of them, so the dysprosium and terbium benchmarks are exposed mainly through sentiment and the wider heavy rare earth complex.
The second date is 27 November 2026, when the suspension of China’s US-specific gallium and germanium export ban lapses. Germanium’s Western premium of 78.6% and gallium’s FOB spread of about $204/kg are the benchmarks most directly exposed to that decision.
China’s mining quota policy remains a further swing factor. SMM reported the first batch of 2026 rare earth mining quotas in late June, and a second batch had not been located in sources reviewed as of 4 October 2026. The timing and size of any second batch would matter most for the NdPr complex, where the alloy and the pure metals have just diverged. USGS Rare Earths Statistics provides the production context for those quota figures.
Industry events that bear on the rare earth market outlook October 2026 are listed in our rare earth events October 2026 calendar.
For the previous month’s picture, see the rare earth market outlook September 2026.
Price data for this rare earth market outlook October 2026 is sourced from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and cross-referenced with published policy announcements. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Prices are subject to change without notice.
Where does the rare earth price data in this report come from?
Domestic China prices are sourced from the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the primary industrial benchmark for rare earth transactions, and are assessed VAT-excluded. Western warehouse and FOB figures, where shown, are also SMM-assessed. Historical and production context draws on USGS Mineral Resources Program data.
Why do rare earth prices differ between China and Western markets?
China’s export licensing framework adds compliance cost, lead time and uncertainty for buyers outside China, which creates a structural premium on material that has cleared export controls and sits in Western warehouses. The size of the premium varies with domestic conditions and Western stock levels, so the two markets can move in different directions.
What is China’s MIIT rare earth mining quota and why does it matter?
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology sets mining and smelting quotas that govern how much rare earth ore Chinese producers can extract and process. Quota tightening is a consistent upward price catalyst for the NdPr magnet complex, while quota expansion tends to cap or reverse price rallies.
What happens when China’s rare earth export control suspension expires?
A suspension pauses a set of export controls without repealing them. If it is not extended, the underlying controls can take effect again under the terms already published, which would affect Western procurement of the covered elements. Possible outcomes include an extension, selective reinstatement or full reimposition.
Which rare earth elements are most exposed to Chinese supply concentration?
Heavy rare earths sourced from ionic clay deposits, including dysprosium and terbium, and the oxide-benchmarked elements such as holmium, erbium and lutetium, carry the highest supply concentration risk, with China accounting for the large majority of global separation capacity. Light rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium are somewhat more diversified outside China, though still a small share of total supply.
What is the difference between rare earth oxide and metal prices?
Oxide is the chemical intermediate produced by separation, while metal is a further processed form that requires an energy-intensive reduction step. Metal therefore trades at a premium to the oxide of the same element, and the two benchmarks can move differently within the same month.
